Videogames like World of Warcraft often have items that you can obtain by killing an enemy character or monster (MOB). Sometimes the game programmers are nice and give the MOB a 100% chance of "dropping" the item when killed. Other times the programmers are sadistic and give the mob a low chance of dropping the item, such that you'll be forced to reset and repeat the kill scenario over and over in hopes of getting the item. The situation is even more aggravating in multi-player videogames where multiple players in the "party" or "raid" group may be vying for the same item. When/if the item finally drops, all those in contention must "roll" virtual dice to see who will receive it. Sometimes it's worth it to keep trying for an item, and sometimes the chances of getting it are so low that it's best to just give up and move on. No matter how many times you do the thing, there's never any *guarantee* that you'll get the item. There's always a finite chance that you'll just keep losing, over and over.
How do you know if something is worth it or not? You start by looking up the item you want on a website like wowhead.com, which maintains an empirically-derived database of the "drop chance" for every item. But that only tells you your chances of getting it on one run, and it doesn't factor in the fact that you may be vying for it with other players. On a per-attempt basis, your chances are always the same, but with every attempt the cumulative probability that you'll have won the item increases, eventually approaching (but never reaching) 100%. To help people figure out how many attempts it's likely to take for them to get an item, I have made the spreadsheet calculator embedded below. Follow the instructions on the calculator and see if what you're thinking about is worth it or not.
Note: This calculator requires you to estimate the number of other players in your group who will be rolling on the same item as you. You may not know that exactly, but do your best. Something to keep in mind is that it's good to keep playing with the same people, because over time some of them may successfully receive the item and cease rolling for it, improving your own odds. If you're running with a fresh group
No comments:
Post a Comment