Excel-based Loot Chance Calculator for Any Game

Videogames like World of Warcraft often have items that you can obtain by killing an enemy character or monster (MOB). Sometimes the game programmers are nice and give the MOB a 100% chance of "dropping" the item when killed. Other times the programmers are sadistic and give the mob a low chance of dropping the item, such that you'll be forced to reset and repeat the kill scenario over and over in hopes of getting the item. The situation is even more aggravating in multi-player videogames where multiple players in the "party" or "raid" group may be vying for the same item. When/if the item finally drops, all those in contention must "roll" virtual dice to see who will receive it. Sometimes it's worth it to keep trying for an item, and sometimes the chances of getting it are so low that it's best to just give up and move on. No matter how many times you do the thing, there's never any *guarantee* that you'll get the item. There's always a finite chance that you'll just keep losing, over and over.

How do you know if something is worth it or not? You start by looking up the item you want on a website like wowhead.com, which maintains an empirically-derived database of the "drop chance" for every item. But that only tells you your chances of getting it on one run, and it doesn't factor in the fact that you may be vying for it with other players. On a per-attempt basis, your chances are always the same, but with every attempt the cumulative probability that you'll have won the item increases, eventually approaching (but never reaching) 100%. To help people figure out how many attempts it's likely to take for them to get an item, I have made the spreadsheet calculator embedded below. Follow the instructions on the calculator and see if what you're thinking about is worth it or not.

Note: This calculator requires you to estimate the number of other players in your group who will be rolling on the same item as you. You may not know that exactly, but do your best. Something to keep in mind is that it's good to keep playing with the same people, because over time some of them may successfully receive the item and cease rolling for it, improving your own odds. If you're running with a fresh group

Kingdoms of Amalur: I Reckon It's Good

I was behaving well a few weeks ago, and as a reward my fiance bought me a new video game to play on her Xbox. Woo hoo! It was actually a wise investment on her part, since I was getting a little worn out on my main game (Borderlands), and Rhonda knew that a fresh one would more effectively distract me when she wanted to write or play World of Warcraft.

Anyway, the fresh game is Kingdoms of Amalur: Reckoning. It's an RPG set in a colorful world that includes all the typical elements of high fantasy: knights and armor, elves and monsters, and a special hero (the player) at the center of an epic conflict between good and evil. Check the video trailer-

The narration in this trailer is actually one of the characters in the game, the Fateweaver Agarth. All dialog in the game is voice-acted, and it's done surprisingly well. Eh, well, maybe the lip synching is off and Irish accents are somewhat overused, but other than that it's amazing.

You learn the story of Amalur gradually because your character begins the game with amnesia; a side-effect of his resurrection by an experimenting magician. Though resurrection is routine among the immortal "Fae," you are the first of a mortal race to be successfully brought back from death. In the process you have been granted an open destiny inscrutable to Amalur's fortune-telling "fateweavers," and you therefore have the power to change the expected course of history.

To be honest I don't quite get the whole "fate" part. I don't know how much detail or how far into the future the fateweavers can see, but it's hard to imagine that they could know a lot of specifics and yet not be able to change anything. The idea is cool, though, so I'm willing to suspend my skepticism for now. Maybe it will become more clear as I get further in the game.

Progress in the Amalur is made in the typical RPG way; via experience and skill points gained from defeating enemies and completing quests for non-player characters. You will encounter a LOT of NPC quest-givers, and the amount of quests on your to-do list can become overwhelming. Fortunately, you can see which of your quests go with the main storyline, and which are just optional side-quests or quests for a particular faction like the Fae, the Warsworn knights, or the hippie stoner anarchist "Travelers." I've started only doing the quests that seem like they're for a good cause and / or fun. Whenever there's a monster in a dungeon that needs to be killed I'm on it, but I pass on the quests to steal library books or collect invoices.

Though the graphics, story, and quests are cool in Amalur, the fighting is what makes it really fun and addictive. In contrast with the awkward combat in most RPGs, the "hack-and-slash" style in Amalur is direct, fast, and move-for-move. How you run around, dodge, and time your ranged, melee, and magic attacks strongly determines your success or failure, and different bad guys require different techniques. You don't have to depend ENTIRELY on your reflexes, however, because careful thinking about your gear and stuff also makes a big difference. The gameplay balance of exciting action and obsessive gearing works really well for me. I've also been enjoying using the optional character skills available in the game, like blacksmithing, alchemy, and sagecrafting. In contrast with the optional skills in a game like World of Warcraft, the ones in Amalur take a lot less of your time and are more immediately useful for making your character more powerful.

Before I end this post I should also mention that Amalur has a rad femme fatale- Alyn Shir. My character isn't quite sure if Shir is helping him or working to destroy everything that he has come to care about, but he's inclined to give her the benefit of the doubt.

About Me, My Blogs, and My Nerdiness

I already have a personal blog, and a blog with my professional information, but I feel compelled to start a third blog.

Here's why:

1. When I started my personal blog (in 2007!) it had a small audience of my 20-something peers, and I felt like I could write about anything. But since I predominantly wrote about windsurfing, marine biology, and environmentalism, I built an audience who were mostly interested in those things, and I got linked to from windsurfing sites and stuff. So now I feel like I'm betraying my followers if I post about something like video games or popular culture, because it's not what they want or expect.

2. Since getting a tech-savvy girlfriend in 2011 I've been re-introduced to video games, which I had rarely played since the 1990s. (My re-introduction is described in this post.) It's awesome being able to share my nerdy side with my girlfriend, but I'd like to be able to blog about it, too, and I think Jimbo's Nerdy Reflections is the way to do it.

Anyway, to finish out this first post, I'll just include some basic stats on myself and what nerdy stuff I'm stoked on at the moment.

Name: James
Gender: Male
Born: Seattle, 1979
Education: PhD
Job: Marine Biologist
Noble Pursuits: Windsurfing, Science, Nature, Politics, Fitness, Philosophy
Nerdy Pursuits: Video Games, Quirky Popular Culture
Video Game Systems: Nintendo Wii and MacBook at my apartment, Xbox 360 and PC at my girlfriend's.
Games Recently Played or In-Progress: Shareware DOOM (MacBook), Legend of Zelda Skyward Sword (Wii), Borderlands (Xbox 360), World of Warcraft (PC)

Watch this space for a rant about Skyward Sword.